Foreign aid cuts will lead to more HIV infections and deaths, study suggests

Researchers said that funding cuts could undo decades of progress.

A new report says that infections and deaths could surge to levels not seen for more than two decades.

Experts, led by academics from Australia, estimate there could be up to 10.8 million additional HIV infections by 2030 in low-and-middle income countries as a result of the cuts.

And there could be up to 2.9 million HIV-related deaths between 2025 and 2030 if funding cuts proposed by the top five donor countries, including the USA and the UK, are not mitigated.

Sir Keir Starmer recently slashed overseas aid spending to fund defence commitments he said were necessary to protect the UK amid uncertainty over the Ukraine war and its implications for European security.

Anneliese Dodds resigned as international development minister over the decision, which will see the budget cut from 0.5% of gross national income to 0.3% in the next two years.

After taking up post in January, US president Donald Trump announced a pause in most US foreign aid spending. He also announced that the US would withdraw from the World Health Organisation.

A paper, published in The Lancet HIV, highlights how international donors have contributed to 40% of all HIV funding in low-and-middle income countries since 2015.

The USA, UK, France, Germany, and the Netherlands together account for more than 90% of international funding, but they have each recently announced plans to implement significant cuts to foreign aid, the article adds.

It is estimated that these plans will lead to a 24% reduction in international HIV funding by 2026.

As a result, the team modelled the human cost of the cuts.

They estimated there could be between 4.4 million to 10.8 million additional HIV infections by 2030 in low-and-middle income countries.

And between 770,000 to 2.9 million HIV-related deaths in children and adults could occur in the same time frame.

“Unmitigated funding reductions could significantly reverse progress in the HIV response by 2030, disproportionately affecting sub-Saharan African countries and key and vulnerable populations,” the authors wrote.

It comes after the UN programme for combating HIV and Aids, UNAids, said that daily new HIV infections around the world could almost double without the aid provided by the United States.

“The United States has historically been the largest contributor to global efforts to treat and prevent HIV, but the current cuts to Pepfar (the US President’s Emergency Plan for Aids Relief) and USaid-supported programmes have already disrupted access to essential HIV services including for antiretroviral therapy and HIV prevention and testing,” said co-lead study author Dr Debra ten Brink of the Burnet Institute (Australia).

“Looking ahead, if other donor countries reduce funding, decades of progress to treat and prevent HIV could be unravelled.

“It is imperative to secure sustainable financing and avoid a resurgence of the HIV epidemic which could have devastating consequences, not just in regions such as sub-Saharan Africa, but globally.”

And reports suggest that the Trump administration is planning to end funding for Gavi, the vaccine alliance.

Responding to the reports, Professor Sir Andrew Pollard, director of the Oxford Vaccine Group at the University of Oxford, said: “The funding cuts in the first three months of this year affecting USaid, ODA, WHO and now Gavi are suffocating global health.”

Commenting on the study, the National Aids Trust said it is “extremely alarmed” by the potential impact of proposed cuts.

Daniel Fluskey, director of policy, research and influencing at the charity, said: “These funding cuts will have a devastating impact for millions of people across the world as well as threatening the progress that has been made, both globally and in the UK, on ending the HIV epidemic.

“Like any virus, HIV does not stop at international borders. We will not reach the goal of ending new transmissions by 2030 in the UK with a resurgence of HIV across the world.”

Anne Aslett, chief executive of the Elton John Aids Foundation, added: “This report demonstrates the critical and urgent need for donors to recognise the cumulative impact of their decisions to cut aid budgets.

“If funding for the global HIV response falls away to the extent this report suggests it could, millions more people will get sick, and health budgets will simply not be able to cope.”

A Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office spokesperson said: “The UK provides significant funding to the global HIV response, supporting work to end Aids-related deaths and prevent new HIV infections.

“We remain firmly committed to tackling global health challenges, not only because it is the right thing to do, but also because it will help us deliver on our Plan for Change in the UK by supporting global stability and growth.”