Declining birthrates are expected to lead to hundreds of additional surplus places in Southampton primary schools in the coming years.

A report to the city’s schools forum said the latest forecasts showed Year R entries dropping from 2,577 children this year to 2,259 in 2028/29.

Southampton schools currently have a total published
admission number of 2,835 places.

The “significant” surplus predicted year-on-year would be far beyond the Department for Education’s (DfE) recommended five per cent surplus.

For the 2028/29 academic year, the city council’s forecasts suggest a surplus of 463 with the five per cent allowance. This is equivalent to 15 form entries.

The report said the predicted surplus capacity would not be at a level where the council would expect to attract falling roll funding.

However, the report by Zoe Snow, service manager for education access and support, said the local authority was considering “more significant plans” to address the shortfall without the loss of schools across the city.

This was to ensure plans are ‘future-proofed’ for any subsequent increase in pupil numbers.

The report added: “These plans will be detailed to schools forum as soon as is appropriate, once the full scope and feasibility of these plans have been confirmed and discussed with schools.”

Speaking at the schools forum meeting on Wednesday, July 2, Ms Snow said: “I think the key takeaway from those forecasts and those projections is the increase in year-on-year surplus in the primary phase.

“We have already had some mitigations to try and look at that in terms of establishing resourced provision in schools, looking at whether we can have additional early years provision or wraparound provision in schools, and meeting together as localities to discuss what some of those options might be for pooling resource and pooling strategy.”

The report showed a slower decline in the number of Year 7 entries, although the Year R surplus would eventually work through to the secondary sector.

By the 2029/30 intake, there is forecasted to be a surplus of 54 places in Southampton secondary schools with the five per cent DfE allowance, which equates to two form entries.

Ms Snow said: “As secondary colleagues will be very aware, we have had a position for the past number of years where we have not only been at capacity but far beyond it.

“Moving back into the position where we do have even the recommended five per cent surplus places will be a change for our secondary colleagues and for the impact that will have for budgets.”