Whale sharks face a growing threat from large ships due to global warming, Southampton researchers say.
A study by Nature Climate Change forecasts that rising ocean temperatures will force the already endangered species into new habitats frequented by busy shipping lanes.
Researchers from the University of Southampton and the Marine Biological Association (MBA) have predicted a 15,000-fold increase in interactions between whale sharks and large ships by the century's end, compared to present levels.
Whale sharks, the largest fish in the world, are known for their mobility and sensitivity to temperature changes.
Recent evidence indicates they are particularly susceptible to ship strikes, which often result in fatal injuries.
The study utilised satellite-tracking data of whale sharks, combined with global climate models, to forecast their distribution under three different future climate scenarios.
Under a high emissions scenario, where fossil fuel reliance remains heavy, the models predict core habitat losses of over 50 per cent in some national waters by 2100, with Asia facing the greatest potential losses.
Conversely, under a sustainable development scenario, aligned with the target of limiting global warming to 2°C, some regions, particularly in Europe, showed potential gains in core habitat.
The research team linked these distribution maps with shipping traffic density data to evaluate if habitat shifts would cause whale sharks to move into more heavily trafficked areas in the future, potentially increasing the risk of ship strikes.
The study found that some newly suitable habitats overlapped with busy shipping routes.
The research, titled Climate-driven global redistribution of an ocean giant predicts increased threat from shipping, was supported by the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) and the European Research Council (ERC).
Lead author Dr Freya Womersley, University of Southampton and MBA Postdoctoral Research Scientist said: "These shifts in the whale sharks’ habitat were most extreme under high emission scenarios.
"A global reshuffling could lead to core habitat losses in some areas as well as increased co-occurrence with shipping traffic as oceans warm and other variables change.
"We show that climate change has the potential to indirectly impact highly mobile marine species through interacting pressures of humans and the environment.
"This highlights the importance of factoring climate change into discussions around endangered species management."
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