A study by the University of Southampton found that market forces have provided good food price stability over the past half century, despite extreme weather conditions.
Researchers analysed data on American wheat production, inventories, crop area, prices and wider market conditions from 1950 to 2018.
They also considered records of annual weather fluctuations for the same period.
Findings indicate a rise in weather and harvest variability from 1974 onwards.
Lead author, Dr Vincenzo De Lipsis at the University of Southampton said: "Before the mid-70s, oil was the dominant driver of wheat price fluctuations in the US, but after this point we see a much stronger influence coming from a wider set of factors that includes weather and food consumption."
Despite climate change causing more frequent and intense weather events, the US wheat market continues to function well.
Wheat prices have remained relatively stable, as have the prices for associated goods.
This stability is attributed to the investment farmers and agricultural industries have made in substantial storage facilities, modern infrastructure and good transport links.
Dr De Lipsis adds: "We have shown that market forces provide a powerful stabilising mechanism to counter the increased variability in weather and harvest observed in the last half a century.
"The market mechanism is one of the most effective instruments that governments have available for climate change adaptation and food security."
While the current storage mechanisms are proving to be robust, the unpredictability of the future climate poses a risk to its efficiency.
Dr. De Lipsis voiced his concern: "It’s hard to predict if storage mechanisms will work equally well if faced with unprecedented levels of weather variability – the kind of extreme events that can potentially disrupt the transport network and the very infrastructure on which it is based."
The authors concluded that their results emphasise a need for investment in key areas in developing regions to ensure a secure food supply in the future.
It was noted that while stability is easier to achieve in developed and wealthier countries, these findings remain important for all regions, given the ever-increasing unpredictability of the climate and harvest.
Comments: Our rules
We want our comments to be a lively and valuable part of our community - a place where readers can debate and engage with the most important local issues. The ability to comment on our stories is a privilege, not a right, however, and that privilege may be withdrawn if it is abused or misused.
Please report any comments that break our rules.
Read the rules hereLast Updated:
Report this comment Cancel