Westminster is bracing itself for the first Labour Party Government Budget in over 14 years, which is coming up on Wednesday, October 30.
It feels like ages since those warm summer days of the General Election and it’s been a very long wait to hear what the Government has in store for us all financially.
Meanwhile doubts have grown like weeds around the commitments that felt nailed down by the previous administration. And fears have been stoked by the few announcements that the Government has slipped out early, like cuts to Winter Fuel Payment and VAT on independent school fees, which have been filling MPs’ mailbags.
The Government has decided not to publish full impact assessments for either of these decisions, which doesn’t bode well. No doubt both would make for grim reading and flash up all manner of pesky unintended consequences.
Unfortunately for the Government, when it comes to the winter fuel payment changes, Age UK have done the maths. They estimate that, across the country, 800,000 pensioners aged over 80, living just above the poverty line, will lose the vital £300 which many rely on to help heat their homes in the coldest months.
In my Gosport constituency, while official Government statistics estimate over 13,000 pensioners will lose out, Age UK suggests it’s closer to 15,000. Of those, a significant number will be just outside the threshold where they would be eligible for Pension Credit. Certainly not wealthy as certain ministers and commentators have suggested.
Ministers have indicated that this policy will save the country £1.3 billion - pocket change in Government terms. But that figure does not take into account the likely knock-on effects of the cut, such as increased hospitalisations over the winter, which Age UK say are likely to outstrip any saving.
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Meanwhile, when it comes to VAT on independent school fees, wheels are flying off at every turn. It’s the first time education has ever been taxed in this country, and even the unions have spoken out against the pace and scale of the changes.
What troubles me most on this are the desperate emails I have received about children in my constituency - children who struggled in mainstream school, sometimes dropping out altogether, because of learning difficulties or neurodiversity. Parents who make huge sacrifices to fund the right education setting where their children are thriving now face an imminent 20 per cent price hike that they simply can’t afford.
Parents in the armed forces, able to serve our nation around the world content in the knowledge that their children are safe and happy in a boarding school with fees covered by their Continuity of Education Allowance now worry if they will have to find the extra 20 per cent from their own pockets.
Meanwhile, perversely, the Telegraph reports that the changes in fact mean that Eton College will be due a £4.8 million tax rebate from the Government.
And only last week, the new Employment Rights Bill passed through the Commons. Even the Government’s own assessment suggests the majority of the cost, as much as £5 billion, will be borne by small businesses.
So we are all keeping our fingers crossed that the forthcoming Budget isn’t more of the same.
Let’s have no more decisions that are so bogged down in ideology they don’t work in practice and only seem set to make our country poorer.
Let’s have well thought out plans with robust impact assessments.
Let’s have no more hiding behind those mythical surprise budget black holes, which have been debunked by financial experts.
This new Labour Government has been waiting 14 years for a chance to reveal their Budget ideas. We’ve all waited 117 days to hear them. It’s going to be worth the wait…. isn’t it?
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